A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
